Key Risks in 2021/22

The major uncertainties for the Fund in the FY 2021/22 related to the top 12 risks described in the tables below.

LOW RISK

MEDIUM RISK

HIGH RISK

RISK INCREASING

RISK REDUCING

RISK UNCHANGED

NEW RISK

RISK 1: Health/safety & operational risk

Description of risk and the Fund’s response

In the first half of the year, the Covid-19 pandemic was not only the biggest threat to health and safety at the workplace, it led to a major disruption to business operations.

 

In response, the Fund enabled its employees to work from home by providing the necessary technology tools, as well as ensuring that the staff were vaccinated. As of 30 June 2022, 98% of the staff had been fully vaccinated.

Opportunities

The pandemic accelerated our digitisation programme in the following ways:

 

  • Remote working
  • Electronic customer service channels

 

These strengthened our business continuity capability.

OUTLOOK

Covid-19 has been largely contained in most parts of the world. However, sporadic infections may occur in any part of the world, any time.

 

The Fund will continue to sensitise staff on standard operating procedures

2020/21

2022/23

TREND

Capitals impacted

Stakeholders Impacted

Material Matters

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES

RISK 2: Liquidity risk

Description of risk and the Fund’s response

Liquidity was a key concern, especially in the first half of the year, due to the anticipated amendment of the NSSF Act to provide for midterm access for members who were 45 years old and had saved for 10 years. At that time, the potential cash withdrawal was estimated to be close to slightly over UGX 900Bn for 93,000 members.
However, the final amendment provided for members who have contributed for ten years, which meant 120 contributions, instead of “savings for 10 years”.

This significantly reduced the qualifying members to just over 41,000, and only about UGX 447Bn had been paid out in respect of midterm access by 30 June 2022.

The Fund will continue to undertake regular cash flow forecasts and address any potential shortfalls.

Opportunities

The amendment of the Act created the following opportunities:

  • Freedom to innovate and provide more benefits to members
  • Increased coverage; eligibility was reduced from five employees to one

OUTLOOK

The volume of claims is expected to increase significantly after the declaration of interest in September 2022.

 

As usual, cash flow forecasts will be undertaken, and shortfalls addressed.

2020/21

2022/23

TREND

Capitals impacted

Stakeholders Impacted

Material Matters

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES

RISK 3: Business/Strategic risk

Description of risk and the Fund’s response

Business/strategic risk remained elevated during the FY for a number of reasons:

Opportunity foregone
The change in strategic asset allocation that saw an increase in investment in fixed deposits at the expense of treasury bonds, which had a higher return, meant that the opportunity to earn a higher return was lost.


Employers struggled to meet statutory obligations
Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, for the last two years, several businesses struggled to meet statutory obligations, including NSSF contributions. This led to less than expected total contributions: Actual UGX 1,486Bn vs. target UGX 1,500Bn.

Inflation
Due to global factors explained above, inflation increased significantly, from 2.1% at the beginning of the FY to 6.8% at the end of the year, thus increasing the cost of business operations.

Once the liquidity pressure arising from midterm access went down, the Fund resumed investment in treasury bonds. Additionally, the Fund undertook measures to effectively manage costs due to high inflation. Struggling employers were given some time to manage payment of arrears.

Opportunities

Interest rates on treasury bonds remained relatively high.

OUTLOOK

Interest rates are likely to remain high due to the increasing government appetite for domestic borrowing.

 

Inflation is expected to increase in the short term if the sanctions on Russia remain in place. Management will enhance cost management measures.

2020/21

2022/23

TREND

Capitals impacted

Stakeholders Impacted

Material Matters

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES

RISK 4: Reputation risk

Description of risk and the Fund’s response

With a potential withdrawal of about UGX 900 billion within a short time, following the enactment of the law providing for midterm access, there was concern that the Fund would be overwhelmed with claims and that it would not be able to pay all the claims without liquidating some of its investments at a discount, and that cycle times would escalate. This would severely affect the image of the Fund.

However, the issue of midterm benefit was managed well; there was no liquidity crisis, and no significant delays were registered in processing midterm benefits.

Consequently, there was no materialisation of reputation risk, and the average positive media tonality improved from 83% (2020/21) to 94.5% (2021/22).

Opportunities

The Fund’s good reputation helps it to increase enrollment of new members and attract exiting members to register as voluntary contributors.

OUTLOOK

No major incidents are expected to affect the image of the Fund in the near future.

2020/21

2022/23

TREND

Capitals impacted

Stakeholders Impacted

Material Matters

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES

RISK 5: Technology failure and System downtime risk

Description of risk and the Fund’s response

The Fund introduced a new pension system, code-named, OctoPAS, on 6 December 2021. Just like with any new system, challenges of availability or functionality were expected to disrupt business operations, especially given the fact that tens of thousands of claims were anticipated in the same period with respect of midterm benefits.

Indeed, some challenges were experienced, particularly regarding receipt of contributions and processing of benefits. However, the Fund was able to address these challenges and pay all the qualifying members midterm benefits timeously.

Opportunities

The new pension system will enable additional efficiencies and support the Fund’s aspiration of paying benefits to members within 24 hours.

OUTLOOK

Issues that affected system availability are being worked on; it is expected that in the short term, system uptime will significantly improve.

2020/21

2022/23

TREND

Capitals impacted

Stakeholders Impacted

Material Matters

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES

RISK 6: Information and Cyber security risk

Description of risk and the Fund’s response

With the introduction of the new system (OctoPAS), cyber security risk was heightened, because the stabilisation period for a new system is usually highly vulnerable to cyber-attack, as users are not well acquainted with the system, and several vulnerabilities could have been introduced during installation.

This risk was flagged, constantly monitored and effectively controlled; by the close of the FY, no successful cyber incident was registered.

Opportunities

The new system has come with enhanced security features, capable of preventing, detecting, and containing sophisticated cyber-attacks.

OUTLOOK

With the ongoing programme of decommissioning of the old systems, it is expected that vulnerabilities arising from system obsolescence will be eradicated.

2020/21

2022/23

TREND

Capitals impacted

Stakeholders Impacted

Material Matters

Strategic Objectives